Value-at-Risk & Scenario Analysis

Data as of

–

Mills recorded

2,493

Global Mill Dataset

Corporate profiles

15,000

Corporate Profile Database

Connector points

20,000

Traceability Connector Database

Director summary

Engaging is worth $167m more than doing nothing

On current assumptions the engage-and-remediate case lands at $5.27bn NPV against $5.10bn for inaction, remediation spend is recovered through retained market access.

Fund the remediation programme as an investment case, not a cost line

Losing EU market access costs $878m of value

The downside scenario removes the compliant share of revenue and leaves stranded volume to clear at discount. Cost of non-compliance alone is $454m before any market-access effect.

Treat EUDR readiness as a board-level revenue protection metric

$121m of value sits at risk in the current supply base

Probability-weighted deforestation and enforcement exposure across the volume you buy today, before mitigation.

Re-run the model quarterly as traceability improves

Value-at-Risk & Scenario Analysis is extra decision support that sits outside the five product modules, it translates their outputs into a board-ready financial view.

board decision tool

Remediation costs $44.3m over 8 years; non-compliance risks $269.0m in regulated market access plus $59.8m of statutory penalty exposure. Engaging is $166.5m NPV accretive versus doing nothing.

commodity

non-compliant mills64

Canonical base inputs

read-only · sourced from the Data Foundation

GML · TTP · HistoricalDeforestation · 3 attr

Liability hectares (remediation base)23,971 ha

Non-Compliant Mills64

Volume at risk13,026 kt

Derived under the EUDR 31 Dec 2020 cut-off from nonCompliantMills(), liabilityHa() and TTP FFB volume. Not user-editable.

Assumptions

director-set assumption, not a Terra Intelligence dataset

director-set

Supply base non-compliant18%

volume without verified deforestation-free origin

Enforcement probability45%

likelihood of a competent-authority action

EUDR penalty exposure4% EU turnover

statutory minimum is 4% of EU turnover

Discount rate (WACC)9.5%

used for all NPV calculations

Remediation cost1,850$/ha

restoration, monitoring and verification

Market-access value6% uplift

premium and volume retained by staying compliant

Supply base removed12%

volume suspended or de-listed

Group revenue4820$m

director-set commercial assumption

Regulated-market revenue share31%

director-set commercial assumption

EBITDA margin18.5%

director-set commercial assumption

Realised price985$/t

blended CIF price assumption

Every value on this card is a director-set assumption, not a Terra Intelligence dataset. Every slider recomputes the estimator, value-at-risk, all three scenario-model runs and the sensitivity grid instantly. Figures are indicative and unaudited.

Cost of non-compliance

estimator output

Volume at risk13,026 kt

Value of that volume$12.83bn

Non-compliant share (18%)$2.31bn

Statutory penalty (max)$59.8m

Expected penalty @ 45%$26.9m

Lost EBITDA on flagged volume$427.2m

Estimated annual cost$454.1m

NPV, engage & remediate

$5.27bn8-yr discounted FCF

NPV, do nothing

$5.10bn-$166.5m vs engage

NPV, lose market access

$4.22bn-$878.1m vs do nothing

Remediation cost

$44.3m23,971 ha @ $1,850/ha

Value at risk

deforestation exposure priced

Regulated-market revenue$1.49bn

Revenue linked to non-compliant supply$269.0m

Probability-weighted VaR @ 45%$121.0m

Suspension EBITDA loss$107.0m

Market-access premium retained$89.7m

Remediation outlay$44.3m

remediate $44.3mexposure $228.0m

Remediation is 0.19x the probability-weighted exposure it retires.

Scenario comparison

NPV, remediation, exposure ($m)

NPV model, discounted free cash flow by scenario

Discount rate 9.5% · $m

Scenario detail

board narrative

Scenario	NPV	Δ vs do nothing	Spend	Exposure
Do nothing Continue sourcing as-is. No remediation spend; full enforcement and penalty exposure carried.	$5.10bn	–	$0.0m	$295.9m
Engage & remediate Fund supplier transformation and landscape restoration; retain regulated-market access and premium.	$5.27bn	+$166.5m	$44.3m	$0.0m
Lose market access Non-compliance confirmed; regulated buyers de-list volume and supply base is cut.	$4.22bn	-$878.1m	$0.0m	$328.8m

Sensitivity, NPV advantage of engaging

rows: $/ha remediation · cols: enforcement probability

$/ha \ P(enf)	20%	35%	50%	65%	80%
$500	+$122.8m	+$166.3m	+$210.0m	+$253.4m	+$297.0m
$1,250	+$106.8m	+$150.3m	+$194.0m	+$237.4m	+$281.0m
$2,000	+$90.7m	+$134.2m	+$177.9m	+$221.3m	+$264.9m
$3,000	+$69.5m	+$113.0m	+$156.7m	+$200.1m	+$243.7m
$4,000	+$48.1m	+$91.6m	+$135.3m	+$178.7m	+$222.3m

Green cells: engaging beats doing nothing on NPV. Red cells: remediation is not recoverable at that cost and enforcement likelihood.