On current assumptions the engage-and-remediate case lands at $5.26bn NPV against $5.10bn for inaction — remediation spend is recovered through retained market access.
Fund the remediation programme as an investment case, not a cost line
The downside scenario removes the compliant share of revenue and leaves stranded volume to clear at discount. Cost of non-compliance alone is $58m before any market-access effect.
Treat EUDR readiness as a board-level revenue protection metric
Probability-weighted deforestation and enforcement exposure across the volume you buy today, before mitigation.
Re-run the model quarterly as traceability improves
Remediation costs $45.3m over 8 years; non-compliance risks $269.0m in regulated market access plus $59.8m of statutory penalty exposure. Engaging is $165.6m NPV accretive versus doing nothing.
| Scenario | NPV | Δ vs do nothing | Spend | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Do nothing Continue sourcing as-is. No remediation spend; full enforcement and penalty exposure carried. | $5.10bn | — | $0.0m | $295.9m |
Engage & remediate Fund supplier transformation and landscape restoration; retain regulated-market access and premium. | $5.26bn | +$165.6m | $45.3m | $0.0m |
Lose market access Non-compliance confirmed; regulated buyers de-list volume and supply base is cut. | $4.22bn | -$878.1m | $0.0m | $328.8m |
| $/ha \ P(enf) | 20% | 35% | 50% | 65% | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | +$122.6m | +$166.1m | +$209.8m | +$253.2m | +$296.8m |
| $1,250 | +$106.2m | +$149.7m | +$193.4m | +$236.8m | +$280.4m |
| $2,000 | +$89.8m | +$133.3m | +$177.0m | +$220.4m | +$264.0m |
| $3,000 | +$68.0m | +$111.5m | +$155.2m | +$198.6m | +$242.2m |
| $4,000 | +$46.0m | +$89.5m | +$133.2m | +$176.6m | +$220.2m |